Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for that comment, because it raises a wider issue about economic management. I know, having served in the Treasury, that the whole of the Government's economic forecast is, effectively,0 based on their own estimates. They convince themselves that the numbers they want to work with are correct, they look around for some justification, and then, when they have a growth figure, everything else falls into place from that. I must let out a secret: I remember sitting in the Treasury during my last Budget there, when we were down to arguing about the last quarter point on growth. Given the political consequences of not having it—the lower revenues and the knock-on effect on public expenditure—a quarter point between friends is not that much. We could add a little bit on and tweak the numbers. Obviously, however, a quarter point on growth either way can have a significant effect on the level of public expenditure, tax revenues and so on that come out at the other end of the pipeline. We have to stop this illusion that there is a source of economic knowledge that is absolutely correct. It is forecasting, and forecasting is exactly what it says: people try to use the best data to say what they think will happen, respecting the fact that they will probably get some of it wrong. My hon. Friend the Member for Chichester (Mr. Tyrie) pointed out that there is about a 1 percentage point difference between the sum total of what the best of the private sector economists are saying and what the best of the public sector economists are saying. Given that we have handed over monetary policy to the Bank of England, a strong case can be made for saying that before the Chancellor goes nap on only his forecasts, there should be a mechanism to take into account what the best of the rest are saying. A 1 percentage point difference has such a profound effect on the future of the economy. If I could make one wish for those who follow me in Parliament, although not in the Treasury—I have had my time there—it would be that there ought to be a tacit understanding that before a growth number is seized on, we need to reconcile public and private forecasts.