Personal Care at Home Bill

My Lords, I strongly support this amendment. The Government’s assurances that the Bill is affordable and that their costings are robust are belied by their own statements, never mind anything being said by local government or ADASS. It is worth reminding ourselves of some of the relevant parts of the impact assessment. First, there is the basic question of how many people stand to benefit from this policy. We do not know the answer to that question. Paragraphusb 5.5 of the impact assessment states: ""Data relating to the number of people who are defined as FACS Critical at any point in time and the relative distribution of their needs/disability is not something that is routinely collected at the centre"." Paragraph 8.8 states: ""We know very little about the disability of those younger adults who do not already receive free personal care, so all of the estimated costs … are themselves uncertain"." Paragraph 5.10 talks about, ""the inherent uncertainty in estimating the costs of offering free personal care in their homes to those with 4 or more ADLs"—" and so it goes on. Paragraph 5.11 states: ""Estimating the costs of re-ablement is difficult. We do not know for certain how many people are already receiving re-ablement services. In addition, we do not know exactly what proportion of individuals require no further care following re-ablement or for how long they derive such a benefit"." Paragraph 5.18 states that, ""there is a section of the population who will receive personal care who previously did not … A value on this benefit has not … been calculated"." The impact assessment says in terms that the costs of this scheme are based on estimates. One or two estimates at the margin might be all right, but basing just about every costing assumption on an estimate where there are no underlying data at all makes this exercise unacceptably risky. We know that financial modelling is still going on. Consultations with stakeholders about the costs are still going on. In the absence of much clearer information, it is impossible as of today to say that the Government’s policy is affordable, which is why this amendment is absolutely right and appropriate.