Fiscal Responsibility Bill

It is forecast to grow; the Minister conceded that earlier. It will go up to about 77 per cent. of GDP in 2014-15, according to the Government's figures, and according to the treaty calculation that we heard so much about earlier, it will go up to £1.7 trillion, which is about 91 or 92 per cent. of GDP. The hon. Member for Luton, North (Kelvin Hopkins) has been present at many of the debates on the Bill, and he will know that other measures of debt take those figures higher still. The key point is that the level of debt is determined by the annual level of deficit. We have high levels of deficit, and we need to bring them down to a prudent level. We also need the flexibility, which I am about to describe, to take cognisance of circumstances so as not to make the situation worse. Many have said today and on Second Reading that, if growth rates are not as the Government expect, or if we enter another downturn before the deficit targets have been reached—a real danger, if the Labour Government back-load the cuts and we hit another downturn with no room to manoeuvre—we might be unable even to invoke the automatic stabiliser, let alone to use the proper fiscal stimulus package that could well be necessary to prevent the situation from deteriorating further.