Fiscal Responsibility Bill

I do not know whether it was because of something that hon. Friends of the hon. Member for South-West Hertfordshire (Mr. Gauke) knew he would say, or whether they were frightened off by something I said in the previous debate, but it will not have escaped the attention of the Committee that there were no Opposition Back-Bench Members supporting the hon. Gentleman during his contribution. I am pleased to welcome back belatedly the hon. Member for Stone (Mr. Cash), who has just made a contribution. The regular awkward squad was not present to support him. This group of amendments and new clauses relate to two things—first, flexibility in fiscal targets, which we discussed to some extent on the previous set of amendments, and secondly, to the reports that the Treasury must produce before parts of the Bill come into force. I shall deal with those topics separately, starting with amendment 4, which is about flexibility. In essence, it would insert get-out provisions in the Bill. I note the points that the hon. Member for Taunton (Mr. Browne) made in his speech, but I do not believe that his approach is the right one to take. It would weaken the position. I shall set out some points about flexibility, particularly in respect of future growth prospects. The fall in output following the global financial crisis has been the biggest factor in the increase in the deficit, so the return of strong and sustainable growth will be crucial in cutting the deficit over the medium term and restoring fiscal balance. Our forecast, as hon. Members know, is GDP growth of 1.25 per cent. in 2010, rising to 3.5 per cent. in 2011. As is the usual practice, revised forecasts will be produced at the time of the Budget. In response to the hon. Member for South-West Hertfordshire, let me say that Government forecasting is a complex and detailed process. As far as I am aware, it is a process in which the Prime Minister is not involved in the slightest way. It is a very technical exercise. The UK forecasting expertise that we have in the Treasury stands comparison with independent forecasters. The hon. Member for Taunton quoted figures relating to our forecasts in spring 2008. I know that he has spotted that things have been going on in the UK economy since spring 2008, and, like every other independent forecast, the Government's forecasts have not proved to be as accurate as we would have wished, but that is because we have had an unprecedented financial crisis that has led to the biggest global downturn in the world economy for 60 years. Everybody's forecasts have been out, and there is nothing exceptional about that.