Energy and Climate Change and Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

I want to address my remarks to the climate change negotiations. They are critical and I think that all speakers recognise that. I also want to set my speech against the background of my experience at Kyoto, because many aspects of that seem to be being repeated as we approach the negotiations at Copenhagen, which I call "Kyoto 2" as we are not developing a new convention, but merely an extension of Kyoto. The current developments are important. I agree with what the Secretary of State said. The Opposition spokesman, the hon. Member for Tunbridge Wells (Greg Clark), said some things about climate change towards the end of his speech that I agree with, particularly about how China and other countries have begun to develop in respect of these issues. Momentum is now beginning to develop. People had, however, been suggesting that Copenhagen was going to end in breakdown, and I want to say something about that. Let me explain something that we learned from Kyoto, as it is important. There seems to have been the view that the Copenhagen negotiations must result in a legally binding agreement. There was not a chance in hell of getting a legally binding agreement, however, as anybody who has looked into the matter will know. I have been saying that for almost 12 months, and I have been criticised for undermining negotiations, but I am pleased to see that we have moved away from plan A, and we are now looking at plan B. What is important is to get an agreement, not a breakdown—everybody agrees that that is critical. I have to note, however, that we did not do a deal in December 1997; we established the principles, and it then took us three years to negotiate the processes by which we would achieve those, and it took us another three or four years before the deal was ratified by the 55 countries that had to ratify it. The time taken was, therefore, up to seven or eight years. In my view, the current situation will not be different. I recognise the 2015 and 2020 timetable and the argument that if we do not meet that, we might fail; however, the real point is to get an agreement. As we approach the Copenhagen conference, similar lines of opposition are beginning to develop. At the time of Kyoto, a combination of people from the coal, steel and iron industries—all great carbon emitters—got together in America and went to Kyoto and said, "We can't accept this agreement." Fortunately, they were ignored at Kyoto and an agreement was reached. We are, however, already seeing the first signs of a similar line of opposition developing now. I was in America a few months ago, where the same people were again putting in hundreds of millions of dollars to combat the idea of climate change. They were employing a technique that is also now emerging here. I am sure that Members will be well aware that we are suddenly seeing attacks on the science. It has, for instance, been said that some event was merely an exceptional incident, and questions have been raised as to whether someone used the word "trick" in an e-mail, all in order to attempt to undermine the science. A thousand scientists have said they believe in the science, however. Not so many of those involved at Kyoto said that, but now there is no doubt. Everybody everywhere agrees about this—except Lord Lawson, as I see from the statements he has been making.