Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs and Defence

I must begin with an apology. I was unable to be present for a large part of the debate owing to Select Committee business, which makes me all the more grateful to be recognised. I shall deal with two topics—first, Europe, and secondly, Afghanistan. In respect of the second, I understand that a large part of the debate has concentrated on that subject. I shall therefore offer such opinions as I do with a certain amount of diffidence. On Europe, the ratification of the Lisbon treaty caused pro-Europeans to breathe a sigh of relief, but if one listened carefully, one could hear quite a few of those who regard themselves as Eurosceptics breathing a similar sigh of relief. The fact that the treaty has been ratified means that treaty reform will be off the European agenda for the foreseeable future. The conduct of the Lisbon treaty, by which I mean the circumstances in which it was drawn up, Giscard d'Estaing's presiding over the Convention, the length of time that ratification has taken—all that has substantially removed any enthusiasm on the part of any of the members of the European Union for a return to such a process, which had an enormously debilitating effect on Europe and was one to which no one would seek to return very quickly. What is necessary now is to ensure that the Lisbon treaty is made to work. In that regard, it seems to me that Europe has largely shown a collective lack of confidence in the past week in its choice of the President and the foreign affairs supremo. In saying that, I cast no aspersions on Baroness Ashton, but it seems to me that these two prime, principal posts ought to be occupied by people who bring to them a substantial contribution. I do not doubt for a moment the conscientiousness of the new President or of Baroness Ashton, but in the nominations to those posts we in the United Kingdom did ourselves no service by adopting a partisan approach. When it comes to foreign affairs, it respectfully seems to me that Lord Patten or Lord Ashdown would have made extremely effective contributors to the role envisaged for the foreign policy supremo. Such is the nature of these new positions that it is the impact of the first incumbent that will determine the nature of the positions. All the more reason, therefore, for ensuring that those who occupy them bring to the task a wealth of experience and a degree of credibility in an area that is notoriously complicated. I suppose that one advantage of the ratification of the treaty, Mr. Deputy Speaker—an advantage which you, I think, will share—is that we will no longer have to put up with those arid and unproductive debates on the Lisbon treaty, about which the right hon. and learned Member for Devizes (Mr. Ancram) confessed publicly that he made the same speech on three occasions. All he did was shift paragraphs around. Notwithstanding that, those debates were a feature of foreign policy discussion in the House for a very long time. Europe should concentrate on trade issues, both internal and external. It is the strength of the European Union which allows us not to be browbeaten by the United States, or increasingly to be liable to be browbeaten by China or India, the emerging economies. There is one area where, sadly, Europe has so far lacked a capability of creating the integrated policy that would be important—on the issue of energy supply, and in particular how we deal with Russia. Europe should be integrated on the issue of immigration. Europe should be much closer together on issues such as cross-border crime, including trafficking and narcotics. On the vexed issue of climate change to be discussed next month at Copenhagen, there is clearly an opportunity for a far greater degree of contribution by Europe not only to the debate, but to the measures necessary to bring about a reduction in CO2 emissions. Europe can be effective only if there is a proper emphasis on the two principles of proportionality and subsidiarity. These principles are enshrined in European treaties, but they have not had the attention or been given the impetus they deserve, and which is all the more necessary the larger the European Union becomes. A European Union of 27 should have proportionality and subsidiarity at its masthead. I hope the Government will take initiatives on this issue in the time still available to them. Another priority is European defence co-operation. The principles are well known—force specialisation, interoperability and common procurement. Until now there has been a lack of political will, but we are soon to face financial compulsion. In the decisions made by the Government who take office next year, it is perfectly clear that there can be no so-called sacred cows. It is clear that defence may well be an area from which a Government, whatever their colour, will want to make savings. All parties are now committed to a defence review, but that review may have considerable long-term implications for the financing of defence. All that argues strongly for a much greater European contribution that would, in turn, feed through to a much stronger NATO contribution to defence and deal with some of the issues directly related to Afghanistan and the fact that the burden-sharing in Afghanistan has been a long way short of equitable. That brings me to Afghanistan. We are in a vacuum because of the length of time the President of the United States is taking to reach a decision. It is important to remember that we talk about our strategy, but the truth is that it is the United States'. In this matter the United Kingdom is subordinate. I do not think that this is a President who, having successfully reduced the commitment of the United States in Iraq, is likely to want to face mid-term elections or his own re-election campaign against a background of an apparently senseless commitment in Afghanistan. Too many people have already described this as Obama's war, and given the mid-term elections and the presidential re-election campaign, I should be extremely surprised if the strategy that emerges from this long period—a little like 40 days in the wilderness—is anything other than one which may not state a date for withdrawal, but which is based upon creating the conditions for withdrawal. It is very easy to say, "Pull out now," but let me identify some consequences of precipitate withdrawal. First, there would be regional instability: the relationship with Pakistan is well known. Secondly, there would be damage to NATO, perhaps irreparably. There are those who would quite like NATO to be irreparably damaged. Russia has never lost its ambition to bring an end to NATO's existence and to create an alternative security architecture. Thirdly, precipitate withdrawal would bring about a serious strain on our relationship with the United States, at a time when we have a President who is more attuned to Europe and European ideas than many of his predecessors. Fourthly, it would return the people of Afghanistan, very likely, to the Taliban, and the return of the Taliban to control in Afghanistan would almost certainly provide much more sympathetic opportunities for al-Qaeda. Is President Karzai about to win the John Stuart Mill prize for liberalism? I doubt it very much. The President's defects are well known, but he is all we have got, and even if there had been a second election, he would be all we have got. That means that, to achieve the conditions for withdrawal to which I referred, we may, if necessary, have to work around him. That is why I understand the emphasis that the Prime Minister recently made on a more local and provincial approach to be a recognition of the fact that if Karzai stands in the way of progress, there is an alternative strategy. Local autonomy would be a very effective way of creating the conditions in which we could withdraw, particularly in a country that has never enjoyed a strong central Government. Indeed, local autonomy is a part of the very political fabric of Afghanistan. Like everyone else, I mourn the death of any British serviceman or woman; like everyone else, I am concerned about the grievous injuries that so many of those young people sustain; and, like others, I have been to Headley Court and to Selly Oak hospital to see the work that is done there. We invite young people to make a very considerable sacrifice on our behalf, and, if I did not think it still necessary for our deployment to continue, I would not be willing to tolerate that sacrifice. However, it is easy to talk in terms of in or out. There are no easy solutions on Afghanistan; there are only solutions that are less damaging than others. For the moment, we must wait until the Obama strategy is published, and, upon that, I believe we will find the conditions that will enable us in due course to bring about the orderly withdrawal of our troops for which we would all wish.