Pre-Budget Report

I must make some progress first. Before we discuss the issues in detail, I want to refer to the terms of the overall debate. I think that the public outside the House are becoming increasingly disenchanted with hearing on the one hand the argument that this is all the fault of the Prime Minister, and on the other hand the argument that it is all the fault of the American sub-prime market and ““nothing to do with us, guv””. The obvious explanation is that there are policy failures here, and an international crisis at the same time. Both those factors apply, and any reasonable debate must start from that assumption. Let me return to the first point: the numbers, which have already been read out. The hon. Member for Tatton was correct in saying that the forecast that the Government are using to predict a recovery in 2010, with growth of 1.5 to 2 per cent., is wildly optimistic in comparison with the figures given by all the other main public bodies. The figures given by the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the OECD are significantly lower, as are those given by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Interestingly enough, the only two bodies that are forecasting the kind of growth in which the Government believe are the investment banks. They are the institutions which, for the past decade, have been gambling with their investors' money in a reckless, over-optimistic manner, and they are the people on whom the Government are relying for advice. The truth is that the growth of the economy in the next two years is almost certain to be negative or virtually negligible, and the advice of the key independent agencies is that planning must be based on that assumption.