European Union (Amendment) Bill

My Lords, I came to that conclusion by an eccentric method—I sat here through rather long debates. My final point relates to what the noble and learned Lord, Lord Howe of Aberavon, said in his very wise speech. Let us suppose that today's amendment were carried and accepted by the Government, and there were a referendum and that, as a result, the United Kingdom was unable to ratify the Lisbon treaty, which therefore did not come into effect and was a dead letter. What would be the effect on the United Kingdom? How would UK interests be affected in that situation? From my experience, I believe that our interests would be seriously damaged. Opposition spokesmen sometimes suggest that if this treaty were cleared away and finished, the European Union would breathe a great sigh of relief and move to a different prescription—the one that we hear about from some quarters on the opposition side of the House. They speak of a free trade area, and a looser, more liberal Europe. I know of no evidence for that theory. I know of no evidence to suggest that that is what would happen. Such evidence as I have seen suggests that it would not happen. The prescription for that kind of Europe was elegantly, comprehensively and beautifully made in the European convention by Mr David Heathcoat-Amory from the Conservative Party in the other place. At the end of the convention, he had seven supporters in a convention of 207. None of them was a member of a governing party, nor a member of a party in a governing coalition. If the United Kingdom found itself in the same position as Mr Heathcoat-Amory was in the convention, we would have some support, as he did. We would presumably have Sinn Fein and certainly Monsieur Le Pen—odd company, in my view, and not company that we should be seeking. There would be a low chance of our finding any government party to join us in our prescription. There would be no chance of our finding the required unanimity to change the treaty in that direction. That is why I am against a referendum, lest the consequence be that we find ourselves in that position. The treaty is no big deal; but for the UK to refuse to ratify the treaty would be a very big deal indeed. That is why I am against the amendment.