Climate Change Bill [HL]

My Lords, it is a great privilege to follow the noble Lord, Lord Hunt of Chesterton, who has such a depth of expertise in this area of climate and what the world has in store for us. One of the daunting tasks in considering the issues in the Bill is that it has already engaged and challenged so many minds and engendered so many reports. My noble friend Lord Waldegrave pointed out the problem that the policy faces. That was something that Winston Churchill underlined, when he said that the ultimate political skill is, "““the ability to foretell what is going to happen ... And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen””." I think nowadays I might add, ““in such a way that people will believe you””. My interests in this matter are probably centred mainly around the fact that I am a farmer, and that is a sector to which some of the provisions of the Bill may be extended. It may be of interest to your Lordships that I have a son who is much involved in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in China and less developed economies and with the trading of carbon credits. As the Minister mentioned, last week’s report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change makes very sobering reading. The arguments that most struck me were the contention that current increases in temperature were occurring at a time of limited sunspot activity—which has usually been taken to cause increased temperature—and that the rises in temperature have been identified not only in the atmosphere but in the oceans. The closing conclusions of the report at first seem almost too obvious. It says, "““the macro-economic costs of mitigation generally rise with the stringency of the stabilisation target””." But by combining the elements that it classifies as adaptation with those of mitigation, it contends that a moderately successful annual target to 2050 would cause between a 1 per cent gain and a 5.5 per cent decrease of global GDP. In that, it is forecasting that things will be 1 per cent more costly than was forecast in the Stern report. It is interesting that those two elements run so closely together. In the Government’s response to pre-legislative scrutiny, published in October, at paragraph 1.9 they undertook to provide alongside the revised Bill their initial analysis of costs and benefit that are likely to be caused by any new targets. Can the Minister tell the House why this has not been forthcoming—at least, I have not been able to lay my hands on it? Looking further into the scientific technologies that will be required, it strikes me that the present remit seen for the Committee on Climate Change is to advise the Government on net UK emissions and the use of carbon offsets based mainly on business and industrial processes. The further element that is only hinted at is that the committee might be required to estimate the carbon absorption rate of various activities, many of which will not be connected to those businesses but which will be an integral part of the UK net emissions. Clause 61 allows for emissions of greenhouse gases occurring in or above coastal waters and the UK sector of the continental shelf. The noble Lord, Lord Hunt of Chesterton, mentioned the importance of oceans and he was among those with me who attended a seminar at the Foundation for Science and Technology last week, when I was informed by a professor of oceanography that half the carbon dioxide emitted since the start of the Industrial Revolution has been absorbed by the oceans. This has increased the acidity of the ocean and, along with raised temperature, will result in the oceans being less able to absorb CO2. We are really only scratching the surface of knowing what the results of all the interactions within the oceans could amount to. There are obvious problems of knowing how this power can be factored into any calculation. Noble Lords this afternoon are offering many additional duties to the committee, but the fact that this may have some bearing on what our carbon policy should be suggests that the committee should have some remit in promoting and researching carbon sequestration on land and in the oceans. The Government in their response paper lay great emphasis on a policy that the committee must be adequately resourced from the start. Can the Minister say if present proposals include resources of this nature or whether they expect research into oceans and other carbon reduction spheres to be separately financed? My noble friend Lord Taylor criticised the amount of discretion that the Bill puts in the hands of the Government. At paragraph 5.1 of their response to the Joint Committee the Government proudly state that this is a framework Bill. In your Lordships House it could equally merit the description of a ““skeleton Bill””, and for aficionados of this type of legislation, it rates as a collector’s item. On a quick skim through, I have found seven areas of legislation that can be amended by order and five clauses that are to be implemented by regulation—let alone Schedule 2, in which 96 matters can be provided for by regulation. I have some doubts about the contention of my noble friend Lord Crickhowell that the Bill gives Parliament sufficient powers. The structure of the Bill lays great emphasis on the fact that in many cases any changes will require consultation with the Committee on Climate Change and then be subject to the affirmative procedure. Would noble Lords agree that these safeguards do not have the power that is suggested? I wonder how many Members of another place would be prepared to defy their party Whip for a statutory instrument. Also, the present conventions of this House mean that we do not exercise a power to amend statutory instruments if the Government will not accept our arguments.