Debate on the Address

My Lords, I wish to pick up the gauntlet thrown down by the noble Lord, Lord Haskins, and talk about food security—not UK self-sufficiency, which is another debate altogether, but world food security. I must first declare an interest as a farmer, landowner and trustee of the Lawes Agricultural Trust. The world population is growing at the rate of 90 million people a year—that is one and a half times the population of Great Britain in extra mouths to feed every year. Meanwhile, the world consumption of meat is growing fast, particularly in China and India. I need not remind your Lordships that it takes as much as 7 kilogrammes of grain to produce 1 kilogramme of beef. Eating meat can be wasteful. It has been calculated that the world will need to produce as much food over the next 50 years as it has done in the past 10,000, but can it? Grain production per person in the world peaked in 1985 and has been declining ever since. Soil structures have been degraded and some countries are losing as much as 15 tonnes of soil per hectare per year. However, it is water that is most worrying. The use of irrigation has more than doubled over the past two decades. Virtually all major production areas in the world, including southern England, are using more water from their rivers and aquifers than their rate of replenishment. The Yellow River in China now fails to reach the sea for a large part of the year. The Murray-Darling River in Australia is similarly degraded by excess irrigation. It is said that it takes 11,000 litres of water to grow enough feed to produce one hamburger and 140 litres of water to grow enough coffee for one cup of coffee, and so on. Therefore, food-importing countries, including England, and more especially the dry countries in the Middle East, are importing water when they import food. I do not believe that it is idle talk to say that future wars will be fought over water rather than oil. Many Governments are concerned about fuel security, but food security should worry them just as much. No society is ever more than nine meals away from total anarchy. Think about it. At the end of the first day, you probably start pilfering food to feed your crying children. The second day you probably travel a very long way because you have heard about a food source, but by the time you get there, of course, you have to fight the thousands of others who have also heard about it. On the third day there will be rats, mayhem and maybe even murder. As I said, no civilisation is more than nine meals away from total anarchy. Meanwhile climate change is also bad news. Over the next 60 years, the equatorial belt will start to burn up and some of our fertile plains will be flooded by rising sea levels. So where will the dispossessed population head for? The latest IPCC report indicates that it is only in northern Europe—not southern Europe—and parts of North America that food production will not decline owing to drought, storms and so on, so we could become extremely important for world food supplies in the future. Where does that leave us in terms of policy? First, I am not talking about UK food self-sufficiency—not yet, anyway. Nor do my worries lead me to suggest more government support for food production. Frankly, the industry has to be really fit for purpose, so it does not need molly-coddling. However, certain areas merit examination. The first is planning. There is much competition for land in this very crowded island—housing, habitats, landscapes, commerce, food, fuel and forestry. I suggest that it may be time to revert to the post-war policy that stood us in good stead for over 40 years, whereby MAFF—now Defra—could exercise a veto on developments that destroyed top-quality food production land. Perhaps once again such a check should be part of the planning process. The second area is research and development. As the noble Lord, Lord Haskins said, we must not take our foot off the pedal of scientific research into UK crop production, genetic improvement particularly, and our ecosystems. Never again must Defra take the easy option of slashing its R&D budget because it cannot think of anywhere else to make cuts. The third area is food waste. Biffa reckons that there is half a tonne of food waste per head per annum. Maybe the Government can do something about that. I am not sure what, but I felt that it was worth bringing up. My fourth area involves the long-term planning of our own water supplies. I feel certain that the Environment Agency has it in hand, but my point is that it will not be good enough to merely share out our existing water between the growing housing stock, industry and agriculture. Our agriculture is going to need, and must have, the extra water to produce the extra crops that will be needed for the future. We must ensure somehow that it does. Lastly, on the question of CAP reform and next year’s health check, which is the start of a long discussion, as the noble Lord, Lord Haskins, mentioned, the short-term art of the possible political compromises between various vested interests must not be allowed to dominate the crucial questions: what will the people of Europe need from their farmers in 10 or 15 years’ time and how do we ensure that we get the most efficient agricultural industry to deliver on those needs?