Debate on the Address

My Lords, I am no great expert on local government and have never before spoken on this day of the Queen’s Speech debate, but I have just been amazed and shocked that there has been all this talk about the need for more houses without a word from anyone—no word from the Front Bench this afternoon—about the impact of present immigration policy on housing need. Only 15 years ago, Ministers were working on the basis that in the years ahead there would be zero net immigration—that is, leavers and arrivers would more or less balance each other out. However, we are now experiencing the most dramatic demographic upheaval in our country’s history. The Office for National Statistics says that 10 years from now there will be 65 million people in the country and that by 2031 there will be 71 million. What is important for this debate is that 70 per cent of that rise to 71 million will, says the ONS, be a direct result of immigration. New immigration will add to the population the equivalent of 11 new cities the size of Birmingham. Furthermore, says the ONS, that would not be the end of it. Unless immigration is stemmed, this apparently inexorable rise will go on and on, so that by 2081 there will be 81 million human beings jostling for space on our tiny island. The Government affect to believe that immigration on this scale is good for the economy. GDP has gone up, they say, but as the population has also gone up, GDP per head seems to have gone down. What of the latest ONS figures, which show that, of the new jobs created under Labour, 81 per cent, not 52 per cent, which was the figure previously wrung out of the Government, have gone to foreigners? That surely does not prove that immigration at present levels has been an unmixed blessing. What of the 1.2 million under-25s who are neither in work nor in education? What of the 5 million British adults who are living on welfare payments? Surely if more British citizens were working instead of claiming benefits there would be fewer vacancies to attract people from elsewhere, and that really would be good for the economy. One thing I fear is true: immigration on the present scale is welcome to many employers because it holds down wage levels. Not to put too fine a point on it, it undermines the labour market position of the most vulnerable sections of the workforce, including members of minority communities who themselves were immigrants not so very long ago. We should not just be looking at the economic consequences of present levels of immigration; we have to look at the social consequences and at the burden that it is placing on schools, hospitals, transport, police, prisons and, of course, housing. I remind noble Lords that the Prime Minister says that 3 million more houses need to be built. The head of the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit says that because of immigration 3 million will not be enough, and the chairman of Natural England, who is supposed to be there to protect our natural landscape, says that we had better start building on the green belt. There is one thing that these three people have in common: no evidence can be found in speeches, statements, reports or articles that it has ever occurred to any of them to question whether immigration at the present level is sensible and whether carefully worked out immigration policies might reduce the demand for housing and therefore avoid the need to cover more of our land with concrete. Unlike the Government, the House of Commons Library has worked out the effect of forecast levels of immigration on housing need. Even on the basis of the ONS figures before they were revised upwards in the most recent report, if we continue as we are going on now newcomers alone will in the next 13 years require 1.23 million houses, swallowing up 41 per cent of the 3 million houses that Mr Brown has promised us. So what should we do? The answer is not easy as far as eastern European immigrants are concerned because there is very little that we can do; we can limit temporarily the number given permission to work here, but we cannot stop those without permission to work coming here and working anyhow. However, we can do something about people coming from other parts of the world. Since 2004, 406,355 work permits have been handed out to non-Europeans, but it is clear from the fact that over the same period 896,000 national insurance cards were issued that the true figure of those who have come here to work is approaching a million. One has only to look down the list of countries from which they have come to see that they cannot all be filling vacancies that cannot be filled from the domestic or European labour market. What is needed is for the Government to declare an annual limit on immigration and then enforce it. The introduction next year of a points-based system for other than EU citizens is a wholly inadequate response to the present situation and, without basic border controls and action against illegal work, the Government’s plan is doomed to failure. I beg the Minister to go away and tell his colleagues that if ever there was an area where joined-up government is required it is in this area of immigration and housing need. From now on, no decision should be made as to how many houses should be built without careful study of how the number might be reduced by sensible immigration control. If that is accepted, we may be on the road back to sanity.