Debate on the Address

My Lords, as foreshadowed by my noble friend Lady Noakes, I want to talk briefly about the sentence in Her Majesty's Speech: "““Legislation will be introduced to create an independent board to enhance confidence in Government statistics””." I was not able to be present because I was attending a conference on statistics, convened by the Statistics Commission. I, too, have been told of the ripple of mocking laughter that greeted that sentence. That is a measure of the gravity of the problem that we face. The legislation was introduced into another place last week and the temptation is to use my speech today as a kind of Second Reading speech, but I shall resist it because we do not know in what state the Bill will be when it eventually reaches us. With the record of the Legislative and Regulatory Reform Bill in the previous Session, we would be very wise to wait to see what happens. However, there are two general points, neither of which will expressly be in the Bill, which it would be appropriate to make at this stage. I look forward to the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Moser, with whom I have discussed these matters. I suspect that he knows 10 times more about statistics than the rest us put together, as for a very long time he was the chief statistician. It is a couple of years since the chairman of the Statistics Commission, David Rhind, asked to see me as part of his wide-ranging inquiry into how the Office for National Statistics and the service were perceived by its different audiences. He may have asked to see me because I was responsible for the census of 1981 as Secretary of State at the Department of Health and Social Security. The census was run by the registrar-general who was a Mr Thatcher—I hasten to add a Mr Arthur Roger Thatcher. The Prime Minister had taken a very close interest in that census. She regarded many of the questions as deeply intrusive. I took Mr Thatcher to see the then Mrs Thatcher. Together we went through every question in the census, punctuated, as I am sure my noble friends will recognise—I hope I do not dramatise it too much—with the words ““intrusive””, ““unnecessary”” and ““impertinent””. As all my colleagues found from time to time, my noble friend could be persuaded of the sense of our proposals and, with one exception, we were given the green light. My recollection is that subsequently all went well and the results of the census were, in due course, published with no more than the usual level of interest. However, events have now moved on. The concern is not now about the intrusiveness of the statistics but the public's mistrust of almost all statistics published by the Government. That was my message to David Rhind when he came to see me, and everything that I have read since then confirms that mistrust. I have queried the phrase in the gracious Speech, ““to enhance confidence””—I would have preferred, ““to restore confidence””. In fact, the Statistics Commission went further in its press release earlier this month when it said that the legislation, "““must transform public trust in official statistics””." I do not disagree. If anyone doubts the need for that, I suggest they take a little time to read the substantial report of the Treasury Select Committee in another place, headed ““Independence for statistics””, published in July this year. I shall quote only one brief passage which tells the story with stark clarity. Under the heading ““Public confidence in statistics in the UK””, it states: "““Recent figures from the ONS show that, while 37 per cent of adults in Great Britain agree that official statistics are generally accurate, just 17 per cent believe that they are produced without political interference and only 14 per cent say the Government uses official figures honestly””." The Government are aware of this. They have consulted widely, although I must add the criticism that they only published the results a few days ago. We have now been allowed to see their proposals. Of course, the House will wish to debate them in detail when the Statistics and Registration Service Bill reaches us, I imagine, early in the new year. I raise this as a preliminary to arguing wider issues. It is clear that, whatever emerges as the role and composition of the new statistics board—which I welcome—Parliament must have a considerably enhanced role as the ultimate watchdog. This has been recognised by the Government in proposals in their response to the select committee’s report, which is worth reading. In paragraph 2.26, it says: "““Respondents generally welcomed the proposed central role for Parliament in holding the statistical system to account, although some questioned which Committee should take the lead in providing oversight over the reformed statistical system. Responses that raised this issue were broadly split between recommending the Treasury Select Committee and the Public Accounts Committee, although some also suggested a new Statistical Committee ought to be created””." Of course, as the report goes on to say, "““it will be for Parliament to decide how best to play its central role in holding the statistical system to account””." If it is going to be the Treasury Select Committee or the Public Accounts Committee, this will be exclusively the preserve of another place. Why should that be so? There is much expertise on these matters in this House. A Joint Select Committee would be a proper forum for the hugely important role of holding the statistics system to account. A number of people said in the consultation that a new statistical committee should be created. Why should it not be a joint committee of both Houses? That is not a novelty. We have a joint committee of both Houses on human rights legislation, and there are also joint prelegislative committees of both Houses. It will not be for the Bill to prescribe that; it is a matter for Parliament. I hope that the usual channels will listen to argument on this. I am seeking support from this House for that. Secondly, which government department ought to act as the spokesman in Parliament for what is to be a new, non-ministerial department? Somebody must report to Parliament; some department must answer questions. The noble Lord, Lord Moser, can confirm that, in his day, this was the role of the Cabinet Office. As chief statistician, he had direct access to the Prime Minister. Why does this now have to be the exclusive preserve of the Treasury? Of course Treasury statistics are a hugely important element of the range of official statistics, but not so important that other departments should have a subordinate role in the process of accountability. I shall quote two recent examples illustrating this point. Earlier this month a report of the review of crime statistics chaired by Professor Adrian Smith was published. In that document, which I got last week from the admirable people who help us in the Library, I read the terms of reference: "““The Home Secretary is concerned that public trust in the crime statistics produced by the Home Office has declined to such an extent that it is no longer possible to have a debate about alternative criminal justice polices on the basis of agreed facts about the trends in crime””." In the executive summary, one can read: "““Both the scope and definitions of the national statistics that are produced need a radical overhaul. Significant groups of victims are not covered by current surveys and certain major current crime category definitions are confusing and misleading””." What has that got to do with the Treasury? Is there not some other part of government that would better exercise an oversight on that? My second example is, perhaps, even more striking. It comes from a recent report by the Royal Society. It looked into future supply and demand for science, technology and mathematics graduates. The figures for that usually come from the Higher Education Statistics Agency. Ministers have taken comfort because the figures apparently show a large rise in student numbers in mathematics and biology, but there were major changes in the way that students were counted and classified from 2002-03 onwards. The summary of the Royal Society report states: "““The society and the Office of Science and Innovation jointly commissioned HESA to produce data on a consistent basis for the whole period 1994/95 to 2004/05, to offset in particular the discontinuities introduced in 2002/03. From these new data, it is clear that the apparent large rise in student numbers in mathematics and to a lesser extent biology is actually just a consequence of the change in way that HESA has classified students on joint courses and education (initial teacher training) courses””." How is the Treasury supposed to be answerable for that? Does it not need some more central oversight from a body, such as the Cabinet Office, with the chief statistician having direct access to the Prime Minister? I would like to see two crucial decisions come out of this new legislation: the new board should be answerable to Parliament through the Cabinet Office, not the Treasury, and Parliament should hold the board accountable through a Joint Select Committee of both Houses. I end with some wise words that I heard at that seminar a few days ago from a member of the Statistics Commission, Sir Kenneth Calman: "““Trust comes on foot, but departs on horseback””."