Debate on the Address

I accept the point made by the hon. Gentleman, who, like me, is a member of the Trade and Industry Committee and takes a considerable interest in these matters. I was therefore careful to say that that point would apply only if China continued its current trajectory, which it might not, and I hope that it does not. I am in no way suggesting a counsel of despair, or saying that we are all doomed. Tackling climate change, however, requires a twin track approach—to deal with emissions, both domestically and in terms of world leadership, and to deal with adaptation to the climate change that has already happened and that will inevitably, in the short term, accelerate—in the medium and longer term, one hopes that it will lessen if we are successful in cutting global emissions. For example, the Met Office published research in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, using the Palmer drought severity index, with which I am sure all hon. Members are familiar, indicating that extreme drought could increase from its current 3 per cent. to 30 per cent. by the end of this century. That is a frightening figure. It is estimated that if current trends continue, by the end of the century the earth’s average temperature could rise by approximately 3.5° C, and sea levels by 1 m. I will return to the question of sea levels. Over the next 1,000 years, the globe could warm up by 13° C, which is a huge increase in average temperature. I do not think that any Members will live for 1,000 years, although we might wish to do so, but such a temperature increase would lead, on current trends, to an 11 m rise in sea levels—about 36 ft—which is huge. The evidence of climate change is already seen in Scotland, which has experienced a 72 per cent. increase in the ferocity of rainstorms over the past 40 years. Dr. Hayley Fowler, a senior research associate at the school of civil engineering and geosciences at Newcastle university, pointed out:"““Extreme rainfall has doubled over parts of the UK since the 1960s””." There were widespread floods in southern England in October 2000, which affected 10,000 homes and caused £760 million of damage. All hon. Members will remember what happened two years ago in Boscastle, Cornwall, where 8 in of rain fell in four hours—worse than in the monsoon in Mumbai. Dr. Fowler also said: "““The observed pattern of change over the last 40 years is very similar to that predicted by climate models for the end of the 21st century.””" Climate change, which we are already experiencing, is accelerating. It will affect lives even more deeply than it currently does. For example, it will affect the National Trust, which will have a problem adapting the guttering of listed buildings for the sudden downpours that we will increasingly experience. The National Trust says that it has had an increase in pest problems in its properties in the past five to 10 years, exacerbated by damp and by mild winters. Barry Champion, who has been head gardener of Trelissick, a National Trust property, for 27 years, said:"““Every January for the past 15 years I have recorded the number of different plants in bloom. In 1991 there were 30 plants flowering in January—this has risen to 220 in 2004.””" That is a tremendous increase. The National Trust estimates that the growing season has lengthened by about a month in central England since 1900.