Government of Wales Bill

My Lords, the more I consider the obstacle race that has to be run before a referendum is called in Part 4, and the more I listen to the background political noises, the more I am inclined to believe that the referendum will never be called by the present Government. I think that the Liberal Democrats are very optimistic in the next amendment in referring to the year 2010. I think that that may be the impression that the Government want to leave with the Welsh Labour MPs in the other place, who are feverishly antipathetic to the prospect of increasing powers for the Assembly and decreasing influence for themselves. It is the height and width of the hurdle in the Assembly that gives the game away as to the Government’s real intention. It is not a simple two-thirds majority that is required; it is, as the Explanatory Notes tell us, two-thirds of the seats as opposed to the total number of Assembly Members voting. That means 40 votes. Looking at the 2003 election results, we can see that that total would require a combination of political parties—Labour and Plaid Cymru, or Labour and Conservatives. But not Labour and Lib Dem, as that would fall short by some four votes. What are the possible circumstances in which the two-thirds majority might be attained? I once heard the First Minister, Mr Rhodri Morgan, in the other place, describe this Bill as an exercise in advance of the Assembly and the Westminster Government being of a different political hue. Let us suppose that there was a Conservative Government in Westminster and a Labour Government in Cardiff Bay. Labour and other parties might combine in the Assembly to seek a referendum on Assembly Act provisions coming into force. But then there would have to be a majority in the other place and here to allow it after,"““ the Secretary of State has undertaken such consultation as the Secretary of State considers appropriate””." My guess is that the high hurdle in those circumstances might shift to the other place and of course to this House. The official Opposition now favour a referendum, as we have said time and again during the passage of this Bill, because the Government have it installed in Part 4. No doubt we shall be reminded of it should those circumstances that I have described occur. We shall of course be equally entitled to remind other parties of their antipathy—indeed, abhorrence—of a referendum when Labour was in office. One point concerns me deeply. I have already mentioned it; it arises from the reluctance of the Government and the Liberal Democrats to welcome a referendum on Part 3 and, implicitly, on Part 4. If this Bill is enacted, we shall be imposing a new system of government on the people of Wales without their consent. It has the stench of stealth taxes about it, as my noble friend Lord Kingsland said earlier, and it deserves the thesaurus of condemnatory words that we heaped on it. The Labour Party will be punished when the people of Wales realise what is being done to them, and how. The thrust of my noble friend’s amendment is to reduce the size of the hurdle to be overcome before a referendum. Of course, I fully support him in his effort to make the circumstances somewhat easier to lower the hurdle.