Jobseeker’s Allowance (Jobseeker Mandatory Activity) Pilot Regulations 2005

My Lords, the UK economy is now growing well below its long-term trend. Therefore, unemployment has started to rise this year and has considerably further to go on all reputable expert forecasts. Therefore, these measures are timely and address a growing problem. We give them a broad welcome, subject to the following questions. First, I turn to the evidence. Six years ago nearly half the people coming off JSA found work—49.1 per cent. The latest figure is only 39.3 per cent. On what evidence do the Government believe that this mandatory activity will turn round this depressing trend? Secondly, how are the areas for the pilots being chosen, or have they been chosen? Will the course be the same in all areas—Weybridge as well as Whitehaven, for example? Thirdly, will some of the pilots include sanctions and others not? One of the basic rules of carrying out surveys—I know this from my wife who is a medical researcher—is that one has a control group and a group on which one tests the effects of the intervention. It seems to me, as it seems to my honourable friend Danny Alexander in the other place, that it would make a lot of sense to have some with and some without. To put it simply, we will not know from this test whether it is the carrot of the courses, the stick of the mandatory nature or a mixture of both. I did not feel that the reply given by the Minister in another place was satisfactory. I hope I get a better answer from the noble Lord. The Minister said:"““There is a body of research on the matter and it is possible to conclude from it that there is a general view that schemes such as the one that we propose would be deficient if they did not include a sanctions element””.—[Official Report, Commons Fourth Standing Committee on Delegated Legislation 7/12/05; col. 14.]" That is about as clear as mud to me. I thought it was sensible of Danny Alexander to ask afterward about the evidence, and to ask for a list of references to the research, if it is publicly available. I hope that the Minister will be able to help me on that tonight. Fourthly, the Minister has given a little detail, but could we have a little more on how the assessment will be made after the pilots have finished? How and when will we know whether the experiment has succeeded? The Minister in another place said that the assessment:"““will be done independently and therefore objectively””.—[Official Report, Commons Fourth Standing Committee on Delegated Legislation 7/12/05; col. 16.]" That does not necessarily follow. I was brought up to believe that that was a non sequitur. It might be, but it does not have to be. Who will be assessing the pilots, how will they be assessed and will the assessment be published so that we can see it? I think that just a little more rigour is required.