Question
What is his estimate of the chance and confidence intervals for cattle developing BSE that their dam would have had BSE; and if he will break down the results to indicate the impact of whether the calf was (a) first born, (b) second born, (c) third born and (d) a later birth. - Includes figures. (Holding answer 10 March 1997).
Answer
Mr. Hinchliffe: To ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is his estimate of the chance and confidence intervals for cattle developing BSE that their dam would have had BSE; and if he will break down the results to indicate the impact of whether the calf was (a) first born, (b) second born, (c) third born and (d) a later birth. [18203] Mrs. Browning: [holding answer 10 March 1997]: The chance of BSE offspring cases developing BSE is 1 per cent. Confidence intervals are not appropriate as this is the observed percentage from the epidemic. It is not possible to provide the breakdown of this percentage with any accuracy into first born, second born, third born or a later birth. however, there are indications that the risk is greater in those calves born closer to the time when a cow develops BSE than those born earlier.